Sunday, September 21, 2008

The Masshole's Lament

New Hampshire shares a border with Canada, so the citizens obviously know a thing or two about world affairs. But still, if you grew up in Massachusetts, this is a horrifying prospect:

the probability of [an Electoral College] tie has increased dramatically in recent days and now stands at 3.2 percent. This is partly because, as we draw closer to election day with the race remaining tight, the probability of any one candidate running away with the election diminishes -- meaning that all "close" electoral permutations, including ties, become more likely.

However, there is one specific scenario that is driving this outcome. That is the scenario wherein Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire. Of the 320 times that our simulation ended in a tie, this particular scenario was responsible 294 times. Indeed, we presently have Obama winning precisely the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, so all that would be needed to make a tie occur is to flip New Hampshire back to McCain, and entirely reasonable possibility.

These are without a doubt the wrong people to decide the fate of the nation.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Remember, you have family living up there! You can try to make them see the light!


M

Mex Files, who might have to live like a refugee said...

Don't worry... Mexico still grants refugee status to those fleeing Fascist regimes.